Unemployment is a lagging indicator. This is true. We are going to hear a lot about that as the sell side tries to generate optimism for a glorious recovery. Owners should understand the scale and scope of joblessness in the United States today. Gudovac does not know if a structural change has occured in the workforce, but believes a return to full employment levels of the boom years will take a number of years.
The following chart, courtesy of CalculatedRisk, describes the percent job losses versus other post-war declines. Clearly we are in a cycle which has some scope and scale differences with any post 1948 cycle. The red line represents the current cycle. Owners would do well to be prudent and careful these days.
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Don't Get Massacred !
Gudovac1941@gmail.com
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