Friday, June 26, 2009

Dow Chemical - buy at $12

Today's Enterprise Value = $25 billion (share at $16 - 110% of book)

Buy at Book - say $12, which equals about 10 times Free Cash Flow

Background:
Cash Flow highly sensitive to marginal output.
Management efforts to address capacity will begin to show up in accounts in 2-3 quarters.
10x FCF is a bit expensive, but what the heck at $12 is pays almost a 5% dividend.

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