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What...From a reader:<br /><br />"............Gudovac, <br /> <br />What is your impressions of Areva as a renewables investment bet? I'm somewhat reluctant to bet on nukes, but it would be an interesting diversification for my investment emphasis on wind and geothermal. <br /> <br />I really find your blog useful, in particular the posts on ABB and AMSC.........."<br /><br />Gudovac responds -<br /><br />I am always hesitant to make investments solely based on narrowly defined 'strategic themes'. These strategic themes tend to over price Enterprises because a theme is something Mr. Market relishes. <br /><br />Owners can be reasonably certain that Global Power demand will grow at GDP growth plus 10-25% - over the long term. Moving towards the question of what methods will generate that power is a more risky proposition. Mr. Market tends to ignore the risks and price all the growth. <br /><br />Gudovac is a huge fan of renewables (and not only because of his tidy return on the wind turbine company he owned for a bit). Renewables are mainstream and will continue to be installed at double digit growth rates as-far-as-the-eye-can-see. <br /><br />However, trying to determine which renewables will win out (wind, various permutations of solar, hydro, or all the rest) big for owners has far too many unknowns to interest Gudovac. <br /><br />Of greater interest to Gudovac is Management. Highly skilled management can generate sensible returns even in stable industries. Highly skilled managers can be pro-active about a changes in their industry. <br /><br />Never Forget - Unskilled Management can lose money even in a booming growth industry. <br /><br />Nukes ? I haven't looked deeply at Areva, so can not speak to Areva's management - but in general, Nukes are a perfectly sensible method of generating baseload power. <br /><br />Nukes are highly sensitive to 'first costs' - ie interest rates and debt-equity ratios. (as well as the obvious issue of regulatory environment - See Germany) . <br /><br />In order to determine what would be a likely growth rate for Areva's Nuke business. I'd understand deeply the long term prospects of the capital markets for funding this type of Project Finance. <br /><br />Gudovac discovered in one of his Enterprises which supplyed equipment to the Hydro industry (similar to Nukes in that costs are all up front - operating costs are nil) that interest rate changes was the best single predictor of demand (ie Hydo projects getting ordered).<br /><br />We developed a nuanced Algorithm for Hydro orders based on changes in interest rate environment. We used it to adjust prices on tenders. When demand was predicted to be high, we raised our prices significantly. It proved a highly sensitive predictor of demand. <br /><br />When rates went down, hundreds upon hundreds of shelved Hydro projects were dusted off and green lighted. <br /><br />Gudovac suspects that Areva's business is also driven by changes in interest rates. Before buying Areva, I'd want to have a deep understanding of the key driver of its business.Gudovac1941https://www.blogger.com/profile/06000438774906200148noreply@blogger.com